Sign-in to take full advantage of your membership, including an ad-free website and improved browsing experience. Many conservatives see Barnes, an outspoken progressive whos called House progressive Squad member IIhan Omar of Minnesota brilliant, as the perfect foil for Johnson to caricature as extreme. Each currently enjoys an extraordinary PARG of +75 or higher. while Evers' approval rating remains above water. Will Democrats Rally Behind President Biden In 2024? RCP House Ratings, Map. In fact, the only current senator with a lower approval rating is Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who has infamously blocked hundreds of popular pieces of legislation.. These are some takeaways from a detailed analysis of nearly a decade of polling on Johnson by the Marquette Law School. And if he is able to maintain a positive net approval rating (its +6 currently), that will be a sign of life for his candidacy. Gerald Ford 1974-77. Timmy! Johnson (Republican Party) ran for re-election to the U.S. Senate to represent Wisconsin.He won in the general election on November 8, 2022.. Johnson was first elected to the Senate in 2010 when he defeated incumbent Sen. Russ . Ronald Reagan 1981-89. We strive to report with honesty and integrity, shining a light on those in power and the progressive politics movement. Johnson's approval ratings have decreased in the last few years, according to polling by the Marquette Law School. Note that the partisan leans in this article were calculated before the 2018 elections; we havent calculated FiveThirtyEight partisan leans that incorporate the midterm results yet. Meanwhile, only about 1 in 4 Wisconsin Republicans (27 percent) strongly approve of Johnsons job performance, which is down 9 points since the first three months of his term. "First of all, I'm not a polarizing figure. Tired of seeing banner ads on Urban Milwaukee? The question is whether or not hell focus on the winning message, whether or not people will respond, or whether those negative numbers are so baked in, he said. The new poll found that 67% of Republicans are very excited about the election, compared to 58% of Democrats and 35% of independents. At the same time, Johnson has grown that much more unpopular among groups that tilt Democratic, tilt to the left and were already negative toward him. The Perks Workers Want Also Make Them More Productive, Then again, a senators PARS score isnt everything. Hi. But Barnes' campaign has largely focused on economic issues, highlighting his middle-class upbringing in Milwaukee and contrasting it with Johnson's status as one of the richest members of the Senate. and Biden approval rating unchanged. More: The fight over Ron Johnson's US Senate seat will put Wisconsin back in the national spotlight in 2022. RCP Senate Ratings, Map. But a comparison between then and now also points to the challenges Johnson faces. Johnsons decline in popularity since 2019 has occurred among almost all groups. In our average of polls of the generic congressional ballot,6 Republicans currently lead by 2.6 percentage points (45.5 percent to 42.9 percent). Wisconsins senior senator should get a boost from traditional midterm dynamics, where the party out of power is helped by animosity toward the party in the White House. googletag.cmd.push(function() { googletag.display('div-gpt-ad-1420576007798-2'); }); Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) thinks he has done 'a really good job,' even with an approval rating of 36%. In a state where the Democratic president eked out one of his narrowest margins of victory over Trump (. Some recent surveys put his approval at 35%, while a March Marquette University Law School poll found him at just 33% support. Cory Gardner of Colorado, Joni Ernst of Iowa, Thom Tillis of North Carolina and John Cornyn of Texas. And a high number of respondents who dont know which candidate they favor 36% in the primary for senator and 32% in the primary for governor allows lots of room for both races to change. Compared with Johnsons previous low point in late 2015 and early 2016, the senator has increased his popularity with groups that lean Republican, lean to the right and were already supportive. The fact that Johnsons negatives have spiked among Democrats and liberals may not be a big deal, since these are voters very unlikely to support him anyway. He simply cant introduce himself for the first time to an electorate that sees him spin further and further into the most toxic reaches.. And hes not the only Democrat with a lot of cross-party appeal; in fact, the 16 senators with the highest PARS scores all caucus with the Democratic Party. Mandela Barnes lead over Sen. Ron Johnson for the key Senate seat widened from two points in June to seven points in a new poll released Wednesday. After about a three-year hiatus, FiveThirtyEights Popularity Above Replacement Senator and Popularity Above Replacement Governor ratings are back! He backed a decision by Oshkosh Defense a large Wisconsin-based manufacturing company and one of his largest campaign funders to locate over 1,000 jobs in Spartanburg, South Carolina, instead of his state. How Every Senator And Governor Ranks According To Popularity Above Replacement, reinstate former President Donald Trumps account, What The 20 Republicans Who Voted Against Kevin McCarthy Have In Common. His race is expected to be very competitive. When the dates . Bemis, a major plastics manufacturer, had appointed Howard Curler as its CEO in 1978, and during the first several years of PACUR's existence, Bemis was the business' sole client. More:'He doesn't understand medicine is a science': Ron Johnson escalates 'guerrilla war' against medical establishment, More:Here are the 11 Democrats in Wisconsin's 2022 U.S. Senate race who are seeking to unseat Ron Johnson. The gap between how Republicans and Democrats view him was large then, but its even larger now. While the results are better for Evers than Johnson, and offer the best news for Michels and Barnes among the challengers, the difference in most cases does not surpass the 6.3% margin of error for the governors race and 6.4% for the U.S.Senator race. Each has a PARS between +1 and -3, indicating that their net approval rating is in line with their states partisan lean. But his rating among anti-Trump voters has steadily worsened, going from minus-24 in 2016 to minus-45 in 2020 to minus-58 this year. If the same state had a Republican senator with the same approval rating, the PARS would be -5 (2-7= -5). 56% of independent voters in Wisconsin disapproved of Johnsons job performance up 14 percentage points since late 2020. There are far fewer voters than in the past who are undecided about Johnson, which could make it harder for him to improve his image over the course of this campaign. A few weeks after the 2020 election, the Crystal Ball put out an early look at the 2022 Senate races. Need to report an error? PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY FIVETHIRTYEIGHT / GETTY IMAGES. Heading into this years campaign, though, Morning Consults quarterly tracking shows Johnsons approval rating severely underwater. Independent Sens. @baseballot, 2022 Election (348 posts) Besides touting Republican wins on regulatory relief, strengthening the military and tax cuts, Johnson used his rollout to hit the Biden administrations failed response to the COVID-19 pandemic, crime rates and the rising cost of living all issues that give Democrats heartburn. The partisan leans in this article were calculated before the 2018 elections; we havent calculated FiveThirtyEight partisan leans that incorporate the midterm results yet. Voicemail to me on election night 18 yrs. Published with permission of The American Independent Foundation. Over the nine months previous to this, Johnson has averaged 35% favorable and 44% unfavorable ratings in the MU polls, the lowest since Marquette began polling about him in 2013. Johnson breezed through the state's Republican primary election Tuesday night, NBC News projected. FiveThirtyEights partisan lean is the average margin difference between how a state or district votes and how the country votes overall. Angus King and Bernie Sanders are considered Democrats for the purposes of these calculations. Ron Johnson's approval ratings are underwater in a swing state that President Joe Biden won. Governors running for reelection in swing states also have some very different PARGs that explain why some of them are vulnerable this year, while others probably dont have anything to worry about. According to a Morning Consult Political Intelligence survey of all 50 states, just 37% of registered . A spokesperson for Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., says he was unaware of an exchange between his staff and that of Vice President Mike Pence on Jan. 6, 2021. Senator, led by Lt. FiveThirtyEights partisan lean metric is the average difference between how a state votes and how the country votes overall, with 2016 presidential election results weighted at 50 percent, 2012 presidential election results weighted at 25 percent and results from elections for the state legislature weighted at 25 percent. Reagan's job approval ratings in the first years of his term were hurt by the bad economy, and the last years of his administration were marred by the negative . Johnson, 67, has also been a magnet for criticism from Democrats who say he has spread harmful conspiracy theories about the coronavirus and the integrity of the 2020 election, among other controversial remarks. Several hugely divisive events have occurred since 2019, however: the GOP effort to decertify the 2020 election; the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol; and the pandemic that began in early 2020. So, its not a short-term fluctuation, but a strong trend, said pollster Charles Franklin, who provided the data used here. ago. Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information. ", "It's not like we don't have enough jobs here in Wisconsin," he told reporters in February. Johnson is widely considered the most vulnerable Republican senator up for re-election this year, but some see a path to victory built on Bidens own unpopularity and traditional midterm dynamics that favor the party outside the White House. Pay no attention to countless testimonies? Given the history of midterms and President Bidens negative job ratings, 2022 is expected to be a good year for Republicans. According to a, As hate crimes against Asian Americans have, Billionaire Elon Musks quest to buy Twitter isnt yet official, but if he is successful, he said this week he will. This includes Sens. Sign up for free newsletters and get more CNBC delivered to your inbox. At this point, very few people dont have an impression of him, Wikler said. How Daniel Kelly worked with the GOP to fuel election denialism. Meanwhile, super PACs for both sides of the race are already pouring millions of dollars into Wisconsin, Forbes reported. She pointed to tax breaks he supported that benefited big donors to his campaigns and his comments about vaccines and the 2020 election as chief examples. Morning Consult conducted 494,899 surveys with registered U.S. voters from October 1 through December 31, 2019, to determine the Q4 2019 Senator Rankings. This poll paired each of the top four primary candidates against Johnson. Got a confidential news tip? House Republicans want to repeal Biden's Inflation Reduction Act. Ron Johnson (R)* Bio | Campaign Site. One is that it illustrates how Johnson has come back from poor ratings before. He is also the most unpopular Republican among the broader electorate who is up for re-election next year. I'm just trying to convey the truth. Jones is a Democratic senator in R+27 Alabama, so hes fighting an uphill battle. One reason may be that voters are more polarized in general. Bolded rows denote senators running for reelection in 2022. Johnsons ratings were minus 7 last August, minus 6 last October, minus 12 in February of this year and minus 10 in April.